My upcoming speech at the PrimeGlobal EMEA Insights Congress in Lisbon is entitled “The 2025 ISA Global Economic and Risk Outlook”. This speech will highlight both the health of the global economy today and the outlook for the global economy over the near-term and the long-term. As this is an EMEA event, my speech will also focus on the health and outlook of the economies of Europe, the Middle East and Africa, regions that have experienced a good deal of economic uncertainty and volatility in recent years.

At present, the global economy is experiencing an uneven recovery from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the rise in geopolitical uncertainty in recent years. A handful of economies and industries have been driving most of the economic growth of recent years, whereas most economies and industries have found it more difficult to generate growth. Furthermore, issues such as political uncertainty, higher inflation rates and labor shortages have all contributed to an uneven economic recovery.

Looking ahead to the next year or two, the global economy is expected to grow at a slightly slower pace than in the previous years, as many of the world’s leading economies continue to face strong headwinds. Nevertheless, there will also be ample opportunities for growth in the coming years, particularly as technological changes such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing and automation hold to promise to reverse the long-term decline in productivity growth. However, only those economies, industries and businesses that are prepared to take advantage of these breakthroughs will reap their benefits.

For businesses preparing to succeed in a challenging global economic environment, there are four macro-trends that they need to be prepared for. The first of these is the continued demographic decline accelerating throughout the world. Collapsing birth rates mean that the labor shortages of today will only worsen, while potential markets will shrink. This change is here to stay. Second, technological change is happening at an ever-increasing pace and will impact all areas of the global economy in the years to come. Some of these technological changes hold the potential to dramatically alter our lives. Third, geopolitical risk levels have risen to dangerous heights and are unlikely to fall in the coming years. This is bringing an end to the period of globalization and is ushering an era of regionalization and localization. Finally, our planet’s climate and environment will continue to change, and the economic impact of this change will only increase in the years to come.

For those businesses and industries that are prepared to take advantage of future opportunities and to mitigate the impact of future threats, there are real opportunities for growth. However, those businesses and industries that fail to take into account these massive changes that are underway around the world will struggle to survive in an ever-more competitive and complicated world.

For more information, please visit the International Stategic Analysis website.