Thought Leadership

Trade policy: Competing voices

According to Kuehl, Pinion’s Director of Government and Public Affairs, much of the trade confusion stems from internal divisions within the current US administration.

The rollout, Kuehl also noted, was riddled with errors. Tariffs were applied to uninhabited islands, while haphazardly calculated rates sparked market turmoil and drew public scrutiny. In the aftermath, Kuehl believes the US administration began pivoting toward a more pragmatic, negotiation-focused stance, led by the Treasury and Commerce departments.

Business response: Pre-purchasing and supply chain jockeying

As tariffs fluctuated, many businesses responded with defensive purchasing strategies. A rush of pre-purchasing saw companies buy and stockpile goods ahead of expected hikes – especially from China and Mexico. This has triggered ripple effects in warehousing and shipping.

“There’s now a shortage of shipping containers,” Kuehl noted, citing feedback from shipping industry contacts. “Warehouses are filled with containers of pre-purchased products, which is starting to cause bottlenecks. It’s very reminiscent of post-COVID supply chain crunches.”

With a temporary 90-day tariff pause currently on Chinese goods, businesses face another critical decision window. Do they order large volumes now and risk overstocking, or wait and hope for further relief?

Accountants are key – helping clients weigh the cost of 30% tariffs against inventory holding risks and cash flow constraints. However, with tariffs changing almost weekly, cash flow planning itself has become a moving target.

On the ground: Real challenges for manufacturers

One guest speaker from the accounting and advisory sector shared how some of their manufacturing clients are struggling to adapt.

“Items are sitting at the ports, and suppliers are invoicing when they come off the ship,” they said. “There’s no set price because the tariffs are shifting day to day. They’re also finding it hard to manage cash flow, and rely more heavily on credit lines.”

This volatility has also upended traditional forecasting models. In some cases, tariffs have changed during transit, resulting in large, unexpected costs based on a shipment’s arrival time. “There was a 48-hour window where tariffs on Canadian goods spiked,” Kuehl recalled. “Any shipment that arrived during that period was hit hard – and the tariff was gone the next day.”

Another accounting firm member commented on the automotive sector, saying “Everyone scrambled when tariffs were added and transport rates shot up. Now they’re paused, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty. Long-term, we need a stable deal that works for both sides.”

Looking ahead: Mini deals and the USMCA advantage

While full-scale trade deals remain elusive, Kuehl expects the US will increasingly strike smaller ‘mini-deals’ with specific countries. These may include product-level agreements or mutual purchase commitments. He cited India as a likely candidate for this kind of arrangement, and expects the European Union could follow suit.

For Canada and Mexico, however, the picture may be a bit clearer – thanks to the 2019 U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Kuehl believes these trading partners are in a separate category and face less volatility. New tax provisions even incentivize regional cooperation. One example is US biofuels credits that apply only to products made in the US, Canada, or Mexico. Kuehl also suggested that this reflects a wider view that keeping North America economically tied together makes sense.

What we can do: Strategy amid uncertainty

Our sector is at the forefront of helping clients adapt to this fast-moving landscape. From monitoring effective tariff rates to advising on procurement timing, we’re critical to both risk management and strategic planning.

Another attendee highlighted that some businesses are even exploring shifting operations or rerouting goods through Canada or Mexico to avoid tariff exposure. As shipment rules tighten, it’s a reminder that global trade strategy is no longer optional, but central to financial success.

In this environment, staying informed and nimble is key. Trade policy may continue to be erratic, but accountancy professionals can offer the steadiness their clients desperately need.