Thought Leadership

The region faces an extended period of elevated political risk, beginning with South Sudan’s scheduled election on 22 December 2026 and continuing through Kenya’s general election on 10 August 2027. Businesses should prepare for slower government decision-making, payment and foreign-exchange pressures in South Sudan, and disruption to cross-border trade. The same conditions are also likely to increase demand for governance, fiduciary and assurance services.

• South Sudan presents the highest risk in Bailey Consulting Groups’s assessment. The election is scheduled for 22 December 2026, but voter registration had not begun as of early October. With the transitional period ending in February 2027, incomplete electoral preparations and continuing political tensions increase the risk of renewed conflict.
• Sudan's war is a regional shock. South Sudan depends on oil exports through a pipeline crossing Sudan for most government revenue and more than 90% of hard-currency revenue; each disruption hits salaries, the exchange rate and government payments.
• Kenya is in pre-election mode. Expect stakeholder churn in Q1 2027 as officials resign to run. Growth is forecast at about 5% for 2026, but household sentiment is weak.
• The Great Lakes remain unresolved. DRC–M23 talks continue under the Doha Framework, while fighting persists in North and South Kivu.
• The EAC is launching a new strategy cycle. A $110m 2026/27 budget and 69 priority posts open regional institutional-support opportunities.

Regional context

A number of forces overlap through mid-2027: election cycles, spillover from two active conflicts, and fiscal strain in the region's most fragile states.

1. Election cycles. South Sudan votes on 22 December 2026 and its transitional period ends in February 2027. Kenya votes on 10 August 2027. Uganda held disputed elections on 15 January 2026, and Tanzania is still recovering from violence around its October 2025 polls, according to commentary in The East African.
2. Conflict spillover. Sudan's war, now in its fourth year, affects refugee flows into Uganda, security in South Sudan and trade through Kenya. In eastern DRC, fighting between M23 and pro-government forces continues despite a peace road map agreed in August 2026.
3. Fiscal strain. South Sudan’s proposed 2026/27 budget was set at SSP 11.335 trillion, with oil projected to provide most of the government revenue and more than 90% of hard-currency revenue. Those exports depend on infrastructure running through Sudan. Kenya is managing debt through a "smoothing" strategy while pre-election spending pressure builds.
4. Regional integration. Uganda's President Museveni chairs the EAC for 2026–27. The bloc's Seventh Development Strategy (2026/27–2030/31) begins this year with a new financing framework, and the recruitment freeze across EAC organs has been lifted.

Implications for business

The main commercial effects are payment and currency risk in South Sudan, slower public decisions in Kenya, and disrupted trade into South Sudan and eastern DRC.

1. Payment and FX risk (South Sudan). Government payments, hard-currency availability and the SSP rate track oil flows and pre-election spending. Contracts paid directly by the Government of South Sudan carry the most risk; donor-funded and World Bank-administered contracts carry less.
2. Decision slowdown and stakeholder churn (Kenya). Public officers intending to contest the election must resign by February 2027, creating a risk of stakeholder turnover as campaigns intensify. Businesses should therefore treat Q1 2027 as the practical deadline for securing priority approvals and prepare for slower procurement and decision-making thereafter.
3. Trade corridor disruption. Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda are the main suppliers to South Sudan and eastern DRC. Conflict there has already slowed or diverted goods flows and created buyer liquidity problems. Tanzania is competing harder with Kenya and Uganda for the DRC market.
4. Compliance and reputation. The UN sanctions on Sudan regime, including an arms embargo focused on Darfur, has been extended to 11 December 2026. Contested elections in several states raise politically exposed person (PEP) and reputational risks, making robust counterparty screening increasingly important to clients.

Opportunities

Fragile, donor-dependent, election-heavy settings increase demand for:

• Public financial management and oil-revenue transparency
• Audit readiness and fiduciary assurance for donor funds
• Governance and institutional strengthening
• Third-party monitoring and M&E where donors cannot reach sites
• Regional institutional support under the EAC's new strategy cycle

Recommended actions

Clients should protect cash flow and staff in South Sudan now; lock in Kenyan approvals before Q1 2027; and stress-test supply chains into conflict-affected markets.

For more information, contact Bailey Consulting Group.